2025 Incident Archive

2025 Fire Season Outlook

The fire outlook for California from February through May 2025 indicates varying conditions between the northern and southern regions. In Northern California, active jet stream patterns are expected to bring near to above-normal precipitation during February and March, followed by a trend towards warmer and drier conditions in April and May. The ongoing green-up and snow cover at mid to upper elevations are anticipated to act as barriers to fire spread during this period. Consequently, significant fire potential is projected to remain normal, aligning with the historical trend of minimal large fire activity during these months.

In contrast, Southern California has experienced a drier-than-normal wet season, with most areas receiving less than 25% of average precipitation since October 1, 2024. This prolonged dryness has led to widespread severe to extreme drought conditions. As a result, there is a slight to moderate increase in the likelihood of above-normal large fire potential along the South Coast over the next four months. While the limited growth of grasses and fine fuels reduces the likelihood of fires dominated by these fuels, the risk of fires involving timber and larger fuels has increased.

Overall, while Northern California is expected to maintain normal fire potential due to favorable precipitation and fuel conditions, Southern California, particularly the South Coast, faces an elevated risk of large fires driven by ongoing drought and dry fuel conditions.